Tuesday, December 23
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, December 23, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Breezy and Exceptionally Mild: A Dry Pre-Holiday Outlook
A powerful upper-level jet streak will transit the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, resulting in widespread cloud cover and significant wind gusts. Despite the impressive atmospheric energy, a lack of low-level moisture will keep the entire Commonwealth dry, with temperatures trending 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on dry conditions due to the robust low-level dry slot; moderate uncertainty regarding the exact magnitude of wind gusts during the afternoon mixing peak.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Residents will experience an unseasonably warm day with temperatures reaching the mid-60s. Thick clouds will persist, but the primary story will be the wind, with gusts reaching 30 mph.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very mild day for Owensboro with highs in the lower 60s. Expect persistent gray skies but dry conditions for travel.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will feel more like October than late December. Windy conditions will develop by midday.
Barren River
Wind gusts could reach 40 mph today. Ensure loose outdoor items are secured. Skies remain cloudy, but rain is not expected.
Louisville Metro
A very breezy day for the city with gusts over 35 mph. Clouds may begin to break up after sunset.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a very windy day along the Muldraugh Escarpment. Highs will reach the upper 50s under gray skies.
Lake Cumberland
Temperatures will reach the upper 50s, making for a pleasant but windy day. No precipitation is expected.
Northern Kentucky
The strongest jet energy passes directly overhead, leading to a very blustery day. While cloudy and cold, it will remain dry.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a very windy day with gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph. Temperatures will be unseasonably mild in the mid-50s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Gray skies and gusty winds will dominate the day. Temperatures will remain steady in the mid-50s.
Northeast Kentucky
Cloudy and mild conditions for the Tri-State area. Winds will be gusty at times, but no rain is forecast.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will see a warm and dry day with plenty of clouds. Ridge tops will experience gusty winds up to 38 mph.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the 130kt jet core dips lower into the boundary layer than currently modeled, wind gusts could exceed 50 mph, necessitating wind advisories for much of Central and Eastern Kentucky.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry slot is even more pronounced, cloud cover may thin out by midday, allowing for more solar insolation and pushing temperatures into the upper 60s for Western Kentucky.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Warm Nose Warm-Up
The NAM remains the cold outlier, keeping Northern Kentucky in the 40s, while the GFS and Euro push the warm sector much further north, suggesting highs in the upper 50s.
Why EURO Wins
Global models typically handle broad warm air advection (WAA) in zonal flow better than the NAM, which often suffers from a cold bias in high-cloud scenarios.
The Momentum Transfer Tug-of-War
The NAM and GFS show aggressive mixing of the low-level jet, resulting in surface gusts of 35-45 mph. The Euro is significantly more conservative, showing sustained winds near 12 mph with almost no gust potential.
Why NAM Wins
With a 130kt jet overhead and a well-mixed December boundary layer, the NAM's higher-resolution handling of momentum transfer is more physically grounded than the Euro's dampened surface response.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.