Monday, December 22
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, December 22, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
A Blustery and Bright Transition to Mild December Temps
Kentucky will transition from a frosty, sub-freezing morning to an unseasonably mild but very windy afternoon on Monday. High pressure exiting to the east will open the door for strong southerly winds, gusting over 40 mph in some areas, while dry air keeps the state free of precipitation despite increasing high-level clouds.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for a dry forecast across the state as all major ensembles show significant dewpoint depressions. Confidence is slightly lower on peak wind gust intensity due to model differences in boundary layer depth.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Residents in the far west will see the warmest temperatures in the state today, reaching the mid-50s. A persistent south wind will keep things blustery throughout the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
A chilly morning will quickly give way to sunny skies and mild temperatures. Expect south winds to gust over 35 mph during the afternoon hours.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will reach the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies. Morning frost will melt quickly as breezy south winds develop.
Barren River
Bowling Green will be one of the windiest spots in the state today. Highs will climb into the mid-50s under bright, sunny skies.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see a crisp start near freezing followed by a pleasant afternoon. Highs will reach the low 50s with wind gusts picking up after lunch.
Lincoln Trail
Expect high winds along the Muldraugh Escarpment today. Temperatures will be mild, reaching the low 50s after a cold morning.
Lake Cumberland
A fantastic day for late December with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid-50s. Winds will be breezy but generally lower than the western half of the state.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will see the coldest morning in the state, with temps in the low 20s. The afternoon will be sunny with highs approaching 50 degrees.
Inner Bluegrass
A very cold morning will transition into a sunny but quite windy afternoon. Hold onto your hats, as gusts could reach 40 mph at times.
Bluegrass Foothills
Morning frost will melt away under bright sunshine and warming temperatures. Winds will pick up in the afternoon, especially on ridgetops.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and Morehead will be cooler than western Kentucky but will enjoy a sunny day. Winds will be lighter here as the terrain protects the deeper valleys.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a bright day with temperatures reaching the mid-50s in the valleys. While valley winds will be light, the mountain peaks could see gusts near 40 mph.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the boundary layer mixes deeper than the 800mb level, wind gusts could reach High Wind Warning criteria (50 mph+) across the Bluegrass and Barren River regions, and temperatures could surge into the low 60s in Southwest Kentucky due to maximum solar insolation.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level cloud decks (Altostratus) thicken earlier than modeled, afternoon highs will struggle to break 50 degrees, and a stronger-than-expected morning inversion could prevent the highest wind gusts from mixing down to the surface.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Mix-Down
A significant discrepancy exists regarding afternoon wind gusts. The NAM forecasts aggressive mixing that brings 40-45 mph gusts to the surface, while the Euro remains much more conservative, keeping gusts under 25 mph.
Why NAM Wins
With a 120kt jet streak overhead and forecast soundings showing steep low-level lapse rates, the NAM's meso-scale resolution better captures the momentum transfer potential in a dry, well-mixed environment.
The Eastern Valley Cold Pool
Models disagree on how quickly the cold air trapped in the Eastern Kentucky valleys will be scoured out. The GFS is more aggressive with warming, while the NAM and Euro suggest 'Cold Air Damming' (CAD) will keep the deeper valleys cooler for longer.
Why NAM Wins
NAM's superior terrain resolution typically handles the micro-climates of the Appalachian foothills and the lingering stability in deep valleys better than the global GFS.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.