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Arctic Blast and Snow Yield to Major February Thaw
What You Need to Know
Eastern Kentucky needs to prepare for slick roads this afternoon and tonight. Everyone needs to bundle up for a brutal Saturday with wind chills near zero, but don't get used to the cold—spring-like 60s return by Monday.
The 'whiplash' scenario remains the headline story as we close out the week. Friday presents a sharp divide across the Commonwealth: a compact disturbance is bringing accumulating snow and slick travel to the Bluegrass and Eastern Mountains, while areas west of I-65 see gusty winds but remain largely dry. This system is the precursor to a biting Arctic front arriving Saturday, which will send thermometers plunging and create dangerous wind chills for the first half of the weekend.
However, this cold snap is remarkably transient. Sunday serves as the pivot point, where the western half of the state begins to thaw while the east shivers through one last cold day. By Monday, the Arctic air is aggressively scoured out by strong southerly winds. We go from sub-zero wind chills on Saturday morning to near-record warmth in the 60s by Tuesday afternoon, offering a stunning reminder of how volatile February transition seasons can be.
Daily Audio Briefing
Kentucky Weather Deep Dive
•Feb 5, 6:02 PM
Key Dates
Primary Impacts
7 Day Outlook
Light Snow and Mix East; Windy and Dry West
A compact weather system will sweep across Kentucky today, bringing a period of light snow and rain to the eastern half of the state while western regions stay dry but very windy. Expect a slushy dusting of snow in the north and east, primarily on grassy surfaces, with little to no accumulation in the west or south.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in precipitation timing and locations; however, confidence is lower regarding snow accumulation totals due to surface temperatures hovering between 32F and 35F.
View Full Forecast BreakdownArctic Blast Grips Kentucky with Bitter Cold and Flurries
A potent arctic cold front will sweep across the Commonwealth on Saturday, bringing the coldest air mass of the season. Temperatures will fall or remain steady throughout the day as biting northwesterly winds drive wind chills into the single digits and sub-zero ranges. Light snow and flurries will accompany the front, primarily affecting Central and Eastern Kentucky with minor accumulations on grassy surfaces, while Western Kentucky remains dry but frigid.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature crash and timing of the arctic front. Moderate confidence in snow accumulations due to the competing factors of high snow-to-liquid ratios (15:1) versus significant sub-cloud dry air which may cause sublimation.
View Full Forecast BreakdownA Weather Divide: Spring-Like West vs. Wintry Northeast
A sharp thermal gradient will bisect Kentucky on Sunday. The western half of the state will enjoy sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the low 50s, while the northeast remains locked in a cold air mass with light snow showers and highs struggling to reach the freezing mark. Central regions will serve as the transition zone with stubborn cloud cover and chilly conditions.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
The score is penalized due to the day-4 lead time (-10), the volatility of wintry precipitation types (-30), and significant model disagreement regarding the exact location of the thermal boundary and moisture depth (-25).
View Full Forecast BreakdownA Dramatic February Thaw After a Frigid Start
Kentucky will experience a sharp temperature recovery on Monday as arctic high pressure shifts toward the Atlantic coast, opening the door for breezy southwesterly winds. While the day begins with a deep freeze—and even a few flurries in the northeast—afternoon sunshine will push temperatures into the 50s and low 60s for most of the Commonwealth.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a dry and sunny afternoon, but low regarding the exact morning minimums and the speed of the temperature recovery in the northern tier.
View Full Forecast BreakdownMassive February Thaw Before Late Western Rain
A powerful unseasonable warming trend will grip Kentucky on Tuesday as high pressure shifts toward the Atlantic coast, opening a corridor for strong southerly winds. While the morning will start chilly—particularly in the eastern valleys—temperatures will soar into the 50s and 60s by the afternoon. Most of the state will remain dry under increasing cloud cover, though light rain will approach the far western counties late in the evening.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is hampered by a five-day lead time and significant disagreement between the Euro and the GFS/GEM regarding the arrival time of the cold front and associated precipitation.
View Full Forecast BreakdownSoggy Wednesday: Widespread Rain and a Sharp Evening Chill
Kentucky will experience a soggy transition day on Wednesday as a progressive low-pressure system transits the Ohio Valley. Widespread rain will dominate the morning and early afternoon hours, followed by a sharp cold front that will sweep across the state, bringing falling temperatures and clearing skies by late evening.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is limited by a Day 6 forecast range and a critical timing disagreement between the GEM and ECMWF regarding whether the rain occurs on Wednesday or ends prior to the period.
View Full Forecast BreakdownA Gray and Damp Day with a Wintry Start North
Kentucky will transition from a cold, overcast morning to a damp and chilly afternoon as a weak southern-stream system interacts with lingering cold air. Expect a light wintry mix or flurries across Northern and Eastern regions early, shifting to light rain and drizzle for the western half of the state by midday.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is penalized heavily due to the day 7 timeframe, the presence of a wintry mix/transition, and significant disagreement between the Euro (dry) and GEM (wet) scenarios.
View Full Forecast Breakdown