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Arctic Blast and Snow Yield to Major February Thaw

Thursday, February 5, 2026 at 6:00 PM

What You Need to Know

Eastern Kentucky needs to prepare for slick roads this afternoon and tonight. Everyone needs to bundle up for a brutal Saturday with wind chills near zero, but don't get used to the cold—spring-like 60s return by Monday.

The 'whiplash' scenario remains the headline story as we close out the week. Friday presents a sharp divide across the Commonwealth: a compact disturbance is bringing accumulating snow and slick travel to the Bluegrass and Eastern Mountains, while areas west of I-65 see gusty winds but remain largely dry. This system is the precursor to a biting Arctic front arriving Saturday, which will send thermometers plunging and create dangerous wind chills for the first half of the weekend.

However, this cold snap is remarkably transient. Sunday serves as the pivot point, where the western half of the state begins to thaw while the east shivers through one last cold day. By Monday, the Arctic air is aggressively scoured out by strong southerly winds. We go from sub-zero wind chills on Saturday morning to near-record warmth in the 60s by Tuesday afternoon, offering a stunning reminder of how volatile February transition seasons can be.

Daily Audio Briefing

Kentucky Weather Deep Dive

Feb 5, 6:02 PM

0:000:00

Key Dates

Friday
Winter Weather & Wind
Accumulating snow (1-2") east of I-75 causes slick travel; gusty winds prevail west.
Saturday
Arctic Frontal Passage
Temps crash and hold in the 20s/30s with wind chills dipping into single digits.
Monday
Pattern Flip
Southerly winds scour out the cold, driving temperatures 30+ degrees higher into the 50s and 60s.

Primary Impacts

SLICK ROADS (EAST)
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
RAPID THAW
GUSTY WINDS
Dominant Pattern
Technical explanation of the synoptic setup

7 Day Outlook

Friday, February 06, 2026

Light Snow and Mix East; Windy and Dry West

Confidence
60%

A compact weather system will sweep across Kentucky today, bringing a period of light snow and rain to the eastern half of the state while western regions stay dry but very windy. Expect a slushy dusting of snow in the north and east, primarily on grassy surfaces, with little to no accumulation in the west or south.

Regions
PADUCAH
45°/29°
Wind 16 mph
OWENSBORO
42°/27°
Wind 17 mph
HOPKINSVILLE
48°/28°
Wind 16 mph
BOWLING GREEN
44°/28°
Wind 16 mph
LOUISVILLE
37°/25°
Wind 11 mph
ELIZABETHTOWN
38°/26°
0.1" Snow
SOMERSET
40°/24°
Wind 11 mph
COVINGTON
34°/20°
0.8" Snow
LEXINGTON
34°/22°
0.5" Snow
RICHMOND
35°/23°
0.2" Snow
ASHLAND
33°/22°
1.2" Snow
HAZARD
35°/21°
1" Snow
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in precipitation timing and locations; however, confidence is lower regarding snow accumulation totals due to surface temperatures hovering between 32F and 35F.

View Full Forecast Breakdown
Saturday, February 07, 2026

Arctic Blast Grips Kentucky with Bitter Cold and Flurries

Confidence
55%

A potent arctic cold front will sweep across the Commonwealth on Saturday, bringing the coldest air mass of the season. Temperatures will fall or remain steady throughout the day as biting northwesterly winds drive wind chills into the single digits and sub-zero ranges. Light snow and flurries will accompany the front, primarily affecting Central and Eastern Kentucky with minor accumulations on grassy surfaces, while Western Kentucky remains dry but frigid.

Regions
PADUCAH
36°/26°
Wind 10 mph
OWENSBORO
32°/21°
Wind 12 mph
HOPKINSVILLE
34°/25°
Wind 11 mph
BOWLING GREEN
32°/22°
Wind 12 mph
LOUISVILLE
28°/16°
0.2" Snow
ELIZABETHTOWN
30°/18°
0.1" Snow
SOMERSET
29°/16°
0.3" Snow
COVINGTON
20°/
Wind 13 mph
LEXINGTON
24°/12°
0.3" Snow
RICHMOND
25°/13°
0.3" Snow
ASHLAND
23°/11°
0.4" Snow
HAZARD
26°/13°
0.8" Snow
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the temperature crash and timing of the arctic front. Moderate confidence in snow accumulations due to the competing factors of high snow-to-liquid ratios (15:1) versus significant sub-cloud dry air which may cause sublimation.

View Full Forecast Breakdown
Sunday, February 08, 2026

A Weather Divide: Spring-Like West vs. Wintry Northeast

Confidence
35%

A sharp thermal gradient will bisect Kentucky on Sunday. The western half of the state will enjoy sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the low 50s, while the northeast remains locked in a cold air mass with light snow showers and highs struggling to reach the freezing mark. Central regions will serve as the transition zone with stubborn cloud cover and chilly conditions.

Regions
PADUCAH
52°/27°
Wind 10 mph
OWENSBORO
45°/24°
Wind 9 mph
HOPKINSVILLE
50°/25°
Wind 9 mph
BOWLING GREEN
48°/22°
Wind 8 mph
LOUISVILLE
35°/21°
Wind 7 mph
ELIZABETHTOWN
40°/20°
Wind 8 mph
SOMERSET
41°/18°
Wind 6 mph
COVINGTON
27°/11°
0.1" Snow
LEXINGTON
31°/13°
Wind 7 mph
RICHMOND
34°/15°
Wind 5 mph
ASHLAND
28°/
0.5" Snow
HAZARD
35°/14°
Wind 3 mph
Confidence Assessment

The score is penalized due to the day-4 lead time (-10), the volatility of wintry precipitation types (-30), and significant model disagreement regarding the exact location of the thermal boundary and moisture depth (-25).

View Full Forecast Breakdown
Monday, February 09, 2026

A Dramatic February Thaw After a Frigid Start

Confidence
60%

Kentucky will experience a sharp temperature recovery on Monday as arctic high pressure shifts toward the Atlantic coast, opening the door for breezy southwesterly winds. While the day begins with a deep freeze—and even a few flurries in the northeast—afternoon sunshine will push temperatures into the 50s and low 60s for most of the Commonwealth.

Regions
PADUCAH
60°/34°
Wind 6 mph
OWENSBORO
54°/30°
Wind 6 mph
HOPKINSVILLE
60°/33°
Wind 6 mph
BOWLING GREEN
59°/28°
Wind 7 mph
LOUISVILLE
46°/26°
Wind 5 mph
ELIZABETHTOWN
52°/27°
Wind 7 mph
SOMERSET
53°/28°
Wind 5 mph
COVINGTON
39°/17°
Wind 6 mph
LEXINGTON
47°/22°
Wind 9 mph
RICHMOND
49°/24°
Wind 7 mph
ASHLAND
41°/18°
0.1" Snow
HAZARD
50°/25°
Wind 6 mph
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is high for a dry and sunny afternoon, but low regarding the exact morning minimums and the speed of the temperature recovery in the northern tier.

View Full Forecast Breakdown
Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Massive February Thaw Before Late Western Rain

Confidence
45%

A powerful unseasonable warming trend will grip Kentucky on Tuesday as high pressure shifts toward the Atlantic coast, opening a corridor for strong southerly winds. While the morning will start chilly—particularly in the eastern valleys—temperatures will soar into the 50s and 60s by the afternoon. Most of the state will remain dry under increasing cloud cover, though light rain will approach the far western counties late in the evening.

Regions
PADUCAH
64°/45°
Wind 12 mph
OWENSBORO
61°/40°
Wind 11 mph
HOPKINSVILLE
62°/42°
Wind 12 mph
BOWLING GREEN
64°/43°
Wind 14 mph
LOUISVILLE
55°/35°
Wind 8 mph
ELIZABETHTOWN
60°/25°
Wind 10 mph
SOMERSET
58°/40°
Wind 9 mph
COVINGTON
56°/17°
Wind 7 mph
LEXINGTON
57°/21°
Wind 9 mph
RICHMOND
59°/21°
Wind 8 mph
ASHLAND
48°/20°
Wind 6 mph
HAZARD
55°/23°
Wind 7 mph
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is hampered by a five-day lead time and significant disagreement between the Euro and the GFS/GEM regarding the arrival time of the cold front and associated precipitation.

View Full Forecast Breakdown
Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Soggy Wednesday: Widespread Rain and a Sharp Evening Chill

Confidence
45%

Kentucky will experience a soggy transition day on Wednesday as a progressive low-pressure system transits the Ohio Valley. Widespread rain will dominate the morning and early afternoon hours, followed by a sharp cold front that will sweep across the state, bringing falling temperatures and clearing skies by late evening.

Regions
PADUCAH
54°/38°
0.5" Rain
OWENSBORO
51°/34°
0.5" Rain
HOPKINSVILLE
54°/41°
0.5" Rain
BOWLING GREEN
55°/43°
0.6" Rain
LOUISVILLE
48°/32°
0.3" Rain
ELIZABETHTOWN
51°/35°
0.35" Rain
SOMERSET
51°/42°
0.75" Rain
COVINGTON
45°/32°
0.2" Rain
LEXINGTON
47°/34°
0.4" Rain
RICHMOND
48°/36°
0.4" Rain
ASHLAND
45°/34°
0.3" Rain
HAZARD
48°/42°
0.45" Rain
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is limited by a Day 6 forecast range and a critical timing disagreement between the GEM and ECMWF regarding whether the rain occurs on Wednesday or ends prior to the period.

View Full Forecast Breakdown
Thursday, February 12, 2026

A Gray and Damp Day with a Wintry Start North

Confidence
20%

Kentucky will transition from a cold, overcast morning to a damp and chilly afternoon as a weak southern-stream system interacts with lingering cold air. Expect a light wintry mix or flurries across Northern and Eastern regions early, shifting to light rain and drizzle for the western half of the state by midday.

Regions
PADUCAH
45°/35°
Wind 7 mph
OWENSBORO
44°/30°
Wind 6 mph
HOPKINSVILLE
46°/36°
Wind 6 mph
BOWLING GREEN
45°/34°
Wind 7 mph
LOUISVILLE
40°/28°
Wind 4 mph
ELIZABETHTOWN
42°/30°
Wind 5 mph
SOMERSET
42°/32°
Wind 5 mph
COVINGTON
37°/28°
0.1" Snow
LEXINGTON
39°/28°
Wind 5 mph
RICHMOND
40°/29°
Wind 4 mph
ASHLAND
38°/30°
0.1" Snow
HAZARD
40°/33°
0.1" Snow
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is penalized heavily due to the day 7 timeframe, the presence of a wintry mix/transition, and significant disagreement between the Euro (dry) and GEM (wet) scenarios.

View Full Forecast Breakdown
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