kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Jul 24
Sun, Jul 26
Forecast For

Saturday, July 25

Updated Jul 20, 7:16 AM EDT
Confidence
60%

Widespread Saturday Rain Focuses on Western Kentucky

A moisture-rich summer weather system will bring widespread rain across Kentucky on Saturday. The heaviest accumulations are expected in the Purchase and Southwest Pennyrile regions, with totals gradually decreasing toward the northeast where drier air may limit precipitation to light sprinkles or virga.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is moderated by the five-day lead time and the inherent difficulty in forecasting the exact northern boundary of a summer moisture plume.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Steady Morning Rain
Rain
82°/ 72°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Light Rain and Clouds
Rain
80°/ 70°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Heavy Rain at Times
Rain
80°/ 72°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Soggy Morning Commute
Rain
79°/ 71°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Scattered Light Showers
Rain
79°/ 69°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Morning Rain and Overcast
Rain
78°/ 69°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Steady Rainfall Possible
Rain
77°/ 70°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Mostly Cloudy and Dry
Cloudy
80°/ 67°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Periodic Light Showers
Rain
78°/ 68°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Afternoon Showers Likely
Rain
76°/ 69°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Rain Arriving Late
Rain
81°/ 69°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Showers and Fog
Rain
76°/ 69°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

A slower trough progression would allow the moisture plume to dwell longer over the Bluegrass and Eastern Coalfields, potentially doubling rain totals to 1.0-1.5 inches in these areas.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

A faster, more open wave combined with aggressive dry air entrainment at the 850mb level could result in rainfall amounts staying under a quarter-inch for everyone except the far western counties.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Northern Moisture Cutoff

Models are in conflict regarding how far north the deep moisture shield penetrates. The GFS suggests light rain reaching the Ohio River, while the Euro maintains a sharper cutoff due to dry air entrainment.

ECMWF
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why EURO Wins

The ECMWF historically handles mid-level moisture boundaries and the 'dry slot' effect with higher precision than the GFS in the day 5 timeframe.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS CORENORTHEAST KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical profile follows a moist adiabatic lapse rate with a deep saturated layer. Freezing levels are exceptionally high, near 14,000 feet, precluding any wintry concerns.

Thermal Boundary

The freezing line is located well north in Canada; no significant thermal boundaries are present over the Ohio Valley.

Diurnal Trend

A muted diurnal curve is expected due to 90-100 percent cloud cover, resulting in narrow spreads between morning lows and afternoon highs.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No distinct surface frontal passage; the wind shift is negligible as the system is driven by an upper-level trough rather than a surface cold front.

Jet Stream Support

Upper-level divergence is provided by the right entrance region of the sub-tropical jet, providing the necessary lifting mechanism for widespread rain.

Energy Status

Broad cyclonic flow is in place with low-amplitude vorticity, supporting steady rain rates rather than convective bursts.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is fully saturated from 900mb to 400mb in the southern tier, though significant low-level dewpoint depressions in Northern Kentucky create a virga risk.

Precipitation Character

The precipitation will be strictly stratiform and steady, with no convective elements or thunderstorms expected.

Flooding Context

Ground conditions are currently average; while rainfall will be steady, the lack of high-intensity convective rates makes flash flooding unlikely.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

None. Surface and 850mb temperatures are well above freezing.

Crystal Habit

None.

Road Impact

None. Only wet roads are anticipated.

Severe Risk

Instability & Shear

Atmospheric ingredients required for severe thunderstorms, including available fuel (CAPE) and storm organization (shear).

Shear Analysis

Deep layer shear is minimal, around 20-25 knots, insufficient for storm organization.

Instability Context

CAPE values are near zero across the state due to thick cloud cover and poor lapse rates.

Primary Threat

None. No severe weather is expected.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

85% Illumination
Moonrise
6:38 PM
Moonset
3:02 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:54 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
6:25 AM
Civil Dusk
9:38 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:47 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
6:17 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
6:21 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:46 AM
Sunset
9:00 PM
Civil Dawn
6:17 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:40 AM
Sunset
9:00 PM
Civil Dawn
6:10 AM
Civil Dusk
9:30 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
6:12 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:38 AM
Sunset
8:53 PM
Civil Dawn
6:09 AM
Civil Dusk
9:22 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:33 AM
Sunset
8:57 PM
Civil Dawn
6:03 AM
Civil Dusk
9:28 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:36 AM
Sunset
8:55 PM
Civil Dawn
6:06 AM
Civil Dusk
9:25 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:36 AM
Sunset
8:53 PM
Civil Dawn
6:06 AM
Civil Dusk
9:23 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
8:48 PM
Civil Dawn
5:57 AM
Civil Dusk
9:18 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:32 AM
Sunset
8:48 PM
Civil Dawn
6:03 AM
Civil Dusk
9:17 PM

Forecast Charts

These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.

ECMWF Radar forecast
ECMWFRadar
Jul 25, 12 AM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.