Friday, July 24
Pleasant and Dry with Increasing Clouds Statewide
High pressure will move eastward today, allowing a deck of mid-to-high level clouds to overspread Kentucky from the west. Despite the increasingly overcast appearance, dry conditions will persist statewide with comfortable temperatures in the low 80s.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the lack of precipitation due to the strong capping inversion. The 25-point deduction is strictly due to the forecast being 7 days out, which introduces uncertainty in the exact timing of cloud cover arrival.
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Purchase Area
Expect clouds to thicken early in the day, leading to mostly overcast skies by the afternoon. It will stay dry with a high around 83 degrees.
Northwest Pennyrile
Overcast conditions will dominate the day with no rain expected. Temperatures will reach a comfortable high of 81.
Southwest Pennyrile
A warm but grey day for the southern border. Highs will peak at 83 degrees under thick cloud cover.
Barren River
Cloud cover will increase through the afternoon, keeping highs near 82 degrees. No precipitation is in the forecast.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see clouds dominate the sky by the afternoon. It will be a mild day with a high of 81 and no rain.
Lincoln Trail
A peaceful day with grey skies and temperatures peaking at 81. Winds will be very light.
Lake Cumberland
Outdoor activities will be pleasant today with cloud cover increasing in the afternoon. Highs will be near 82.
Northern Kentucky
Expect clouds to arrive by mid-day, leading to a grey but dry afternoon with a high of 81.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and Georgetown will see clouds thicken through the day. Temperatures will be comfortable, topping out at 80.
Bluegrass Foothills
Richmond and Berea will see a mostly cloudy day with highs near 81. No rain is expected.
Northeast Kentucky
The northeast will see the most sun today, though clouds will still increase by evening. High of 82.
Southeast Kentucky
Hazard and Pikeville will see overcast skies by the evening. Temperatures will be pleasant, reaching 81.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If mid-level moisture advection is delayed by a few hours, the Bluegrass and Eastern Kentucky regions could see several additional hours of full solar insolation, pushing temperatures into the mid-80s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the moisture profile saturates faster than expected in the 700-600mb layer, some light virga or sprinkles could reach the surface in Western Kentucky, though accumulation would be negligible.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Urban Heat Gradient
Conflict between high-resolution models and global models regarding the impact of cloud cover on the urban heat island effect in Metro areas.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM better resolves the low-level thermal retention in the Louisville and Lexington corridors despite the thickening cloud deck.
The Phantom Precip Conflict
The GFS is hinting at very light, widely scattered precipitation (0.01 inch) in Western KY due to high RH in the mid-levels, while the Euro and NAM maintain a bone-dry boundary layer.
Why EURO Wins
Sounding analysis confirms a 15-20 degree dewpoint depression below 10,000 feet, which will easily evaporate any falling hydrometeors before they reach the ground.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.