Wednesday, July 22
Morning Showers East; Sunny Skies West
A weak mid-level disturbance will slide across the Commonwealth on Wednesday, bringing a period of light rain and cloudy skies to Central and Eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, high pressure building from the west will ensure a dry and sunny day for the Purchase and Pennyrile regions.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall pattern of 'Rain East/Dry West,' but minor timing and magnitude differences exist regarding the departing shortwave.
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Purchase Area
It will be a beautiful summer day with clear skies and comfortable temperatures for late July. Expect highs to reach the low 80s with a light breeze.
Northwest Pennyrile
A stable and sunny day is expected with highs near 80 degrees. Dry air will keep humidity levels manageable for outdoor activities.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect plenty of sunshine throughout the day with temperatures reaching the low 80s. Humidity will remain moderate, making for a very pleasant July afternoon.
Barren River
Bowling Green and surrounding areas will see a sunny and calm Wednesday. Temperatures will peak around 80 degrees with no rain in the forecast.
Louisville Metro
Clouds will be present early in the day, but they will clear out by the afternoon. Highs will reach the low 80s under mostly sunny skies by dinner time.
Lincoln Trail
You may see a few light sprinkles or a brief shower before 9:00 AM. The rest of the day will be dry with skies clearing through the afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Expect light rain and damp conditions through the morning hours. Rainfall will total around 0.08 inches before tapering off by early afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
A mostly cloudy day is in store for the region, keeping high temperatures in the upper 70s. While it will look like rain, conditions should remain dry throughout the day.
Inner Bluegrass
A grey morning with light drizzle or sprinkles will give way to a mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs will stay in the upper 70s due to the lack of sun early in the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
Light rain showers will move through during the morning commute. Total rainfall will be minimal, around 0.03 inches, with clearing expected by evening.
Northeast Kentucky
Clouds and light rain will define the first half of the day. Expect around 0.04 inches of rain before skies begin to break up in the late afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Scattered showers will persist for much of the day in Southeast Kentucky. Accumulations around 0.12 inches are expected, with the damp weather lasting into the early evening.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The trough slows down, allowing deeper moisture to pool over the Appalachians and producing rainfall totals closer to 0.25 inches with clouds lingering through sunset.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air entrainment from the Great Lakes is more aggressive, resulting in nothing more than scattered sprinkles and rapid morning clearing for all areas east of I-75.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Heat Gap
A notable 5-degree spread exists between the GFS and ECMWF for high temperatures in the Purchase and Pennyrile regions.
Why EURO Wins
The ECMWF typically handles solar insolation and boundary layer warming better under summer high-pressure regimes compared to the GFS's cooler bias in dry air.
Precipitation Magnitude Disconnect
GFS is forecasting nearly double the rainfall of the ECMWF in the Southeast Coalfields and Lake Cumberland regions.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS tends to resolve the localized orographic lift and moisture pooling in the Cumberland plateau better than the coarser global ECMWF in weak flow regimes.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.