Thursday, May 14
Bright Sunshine and Pleasant Afternoons Following Cool Mornings
A dominant high-pressure system will settle over the Ohio Valley, ensuring dry conditions and clear skies for the Commonwealth. After a chilly start for many, particularly in the eastern valleys, temperatures will rebound to near-seasonal levels.
Confidence Assessment
Extremely high agreement across all major suites regarding the dry air mass (PWATs < 0.5 inches) and the positioning of the surface high pressure.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
It will be a fantastic day in the Purchase region with wall-to-wall sunshine. Temperatures will be the warmest in the state, climbing into the low 70s by mid-afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a beautiful spring day with full sun. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 60s with a light northerly breeze.
Southwest Pennyrile
Brilliant sunshine will dominate the day. Highs will settle right around 70 degrees, making for a perfect day for outdoor activities.
Barren River
A chilly start will lead into a pleasant, sunny afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 60s with light winds settling by mid-day.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will enjoy bright sun and comfortable temperatures. It will be slightly breezy in the morning, but winds will calm in the evening.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a crisp morning followed by a beautiful, sunny afternoon. Temperatures will be comfortable in the mid-to-upper 60s.
Lake Cumberland
A perfect day to be near the water. Skies will be clear and temperatures will reach the mid-60s by late afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
A cool start for Northern Kentucky will lead into a sunny afternoon with highs reaching the mid-60s.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see plenty of sun with a refreshing northerly breeze. Afternoon highs will be pleasant in the mid-60s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Temperatures will drop into the mid-30s early this morning with patchy frost possible in the valleys. A sunny afternoon will bring highs into the 60s.
Northeast Kentucky
A few morning clouds may linger near Ashland, but skies will turn sunny by the afternoon with cooler highs near 60.
Southeast Kentucky
After some morning clouds in the valleys, it will be a crisp and sunny day for the coalfields with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the dry air mass maximizes solar insolation and the surface high shifts east faster, afternoon highs in the west could reach the mid-70s with widespread mid-60s elsewhere.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the morning stratocumulus deck in the eastern coalfields is more stubborn than expected, highs in those regions may struggle to reach 60 degrees.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Valley Floor Chill
A significant disagreement exists regarding the morning low temperatures in the rugged terrain of eastern Kentucky. The NAM and GFS favor aggressive radiational cooling in the valleys, while the Euro remains nearly 10 degrees warmer.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM’s higher horizontal resolution and superior boundary layer physics better capture the cold air drainage and decoupling expected in the narrow valleys and the Knobs region.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.