Wednesday, May 13
Breezy Spring Day with Passing Showers North and East
Kentucky will see a weather divide today. Western regions enjoy sunshine and late-spring warmth, while a quick-moving disturbance brings light rain and gusty winds to Northern and Eastern portions of the Commonwealth.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall synoptic setup and precipitation type (all rain). Minor timing differences and QPF magnitude are the only limiting factors.
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Purchase Area
A fantastic spring day is ahead with clear blue skies and mild temperatures. Expect highs to reach the upper 70s with light winds.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a mix of sun and clouds with breezy conditions. Highs will be comfortable in the mid-70s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Plenty of sunshine will push temperatures toward the 80-degree mark. It will be a perfect day for outdoor activities.
Barren River
Bowling Green will see bright skies and highs in the upper 70s. A light breeze will develop in the afternoon.
Louisville Metro
Light rain showers will move through during the morning commute. Expect a very windy day with gusts over 35 mph.
Lincoln Trail
A few light showers are possible in the morning, giving way to afternoon sun. Winds will be gusty at times.
Lake Cumberland
A few light rain showers arrive by late afternoon. It will be breezy with highs in the mid-70s.
Northern Kentucky
Damp weather will affect the morning commute. High winds will persist all day. Expect gusts up to 40 mph at times.
Inner Bluegrass
While a stray shower is possible, the main story will be the wind. Gusts up to 40 mph are likely throughout the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a grey and very windy day. No significant rain is expected. Gusts will reach 40 mph, making for a blustery afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Periods of steady rain will develop this afternoon. Rainfall totals will be around a quarter of an inch.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will develop later in the day and continue through the evening. Totals will be light, around 0.15 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the NAM's higher QPF verifies and the moisture plume deepens, the Northeast and Coalfields could see over a half-inch of rain with gusts approaching 45 mph.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air (virga) wins as suggested by the GFS/GEM, many areas in the Bluegrass will see nothing more than a few sprinkles and high clouds.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Mix-Down
A disagreement exists regarding the magnitude of surface wind gusts. The NAM is much more aggressive with mixing down the 40-45kt LLJ, forecasting gusts to 40mph+, while the GFS and GEM keep gusts closer to 30mph.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles boundary layer mixing and momentum transfer from the 850mb level more accurately in high-resolution environments.
The QPF Moisture Squeeze
Global models (GFS/GEM) show very light precipitation totals (under 0.10"), while the NAM suggests orographic enhancement could push totals over 0.30" in the Eastern mountains.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM likely overestimates bullseyes, the global models often under-forecast orographic lift in the Eastern Coalfields. A blend captures the likely moderate rainfall totals.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.