Friday, April 17
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 2:08PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON HICKMAN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BLOOMFIELD, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, NEW MADRID, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, SIKESTON, VAN BUREN, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 2:50PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS JOHNSON MASSAC POPE SALINE WILLIAMSON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALLOWAY GRAVES LIVINGSTON MARSHALL MCCRACKEN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BENTON, GOLCONDA, HARRISBURG, HERRIN, MAYFIELD, METROPOLIS, MURRAY, PADUCAH, SMITHLAND, AND VIENNA.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 2:50PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON HICKMAN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BLOOMFIELD, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, NEW MADRID, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, SIKESTON, VAN BUREN, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 4:51PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALDWELL CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN HOPKINS LYON TRIGG THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CADIZ, EDDYVILLE, HOPKINSVILLE, MADISONVILLE, MARION, AND PRINCETON.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 4:51PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MARSHALL MCCRACKEN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, BLOOMFIELD, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, GOLCONDA, HARRISBURG, HERRIN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MAYFIELD, METROPOLIS, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, MURRAY, NEW MADRID, PADUCAH, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, SIKESTON, SMITHLAND, VAN BUREN, VIENNA, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 5:50PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN HOPKINS LYON MARSHALL TRIGG IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, BLOOMFIELD, CADIZ, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, EDDYVILLE, HICKMAN, HOPKINSVILLE, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MADISONVILLE, MARBLE HILL, MAYFIELD, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, MURRAY, NEW MADRID, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, PRINCETON, SIKESTON, VAN BUREN, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 7:06PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER PULASKI IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LYON MARSHALL TRIGG IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, BLOOMFIELD, CADIZ, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, EDDYVILLE, HICKMAN, HOPKINSVILLE, JACKSON, MAYFIELD, MOUND CITY, MURRAY, NEW MADRID, POPLAR BLUFF, SIKESTON, AND WICKLIFFE.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, April 17, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Record-Challenging Warmth with Isolated Spring Sprinkles
Kentucky will experience unseasonably warm conditions today with temperatures soaring into the 80s, roughly 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms. While high pressure dominates, a weak upper-level disturbance will bring isolated light rain showers to the western and southeastern portions of the state, though much of this may result in virga due to dry low-level air.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the unseasonable warmth; lower confidence regarding the existence of measurable precipitation versus virga due to significant dry air in the lower atmosphere.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect an exceptionally warm day with plenty of sunshine and highs reaching the mid-80s. A few clouds and an isolated sprinkle are possible in the afternoon, but most will stay dry.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very warm day is expected with temperatures in the low 80s. Keep an eye out for a few light showers or sprinkles between noon and sunset.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will feel like early summer today, reaching the mid-80s under sunny skies. Breezy conditions will develop by evening.
Barren River
Expect bright sunshine and temperatures climbing into the mid-80s. Light winds will make for a perfect afternoon outdoors.
Louisville Metro
A very warm day for the metro area with highs in the low 80s. Clouds will increase this evening, but no rain is expected.
Lincoln Trail
Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures reaching the low 80s. A calm day overall with a light southerly breeze.
Lake Cumberland
Expect sunny skies and warm temperatures near 81 degrees. Calm waters and light winds will prevail.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will enjoy sunshine and temperatures peaking in the low 80s. Significantly warmer than typical for mid-April.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a few morning sprinkles followed by a warm and sunny afternoon. Temperatures will reach the 80s by 3 PM.
Bluegrass Foothills
A beautiful spring day with highs in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain very light.
Northeast Kentucky
Enjoy a warm day with highs in the low 80s and plenty of sunshine. Mild morning lows will jumpstart the warming trend.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a few light showers in the morning hours, with accumulations around 0.08 inches. Skies will clear by afternoon, allowing for a warm 79-degree finish.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level dry air is slightly weaker than expected and the ridge centers more firmly over the Appalachians, afternoon highs could reach 88-89°F in the Purchase and Southwest Pennyrile, with zero measurable rain reaching the ground statewide.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If cloud cover from the morning shortwave persists longer than anticipated and the moisture profile deepens, temperatures may be held in the upper 70s for the Bluegrass and Eastern regions, with more widespread light measurable rain (0.10"-0.20") in the mountains.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The 85-Degree Boundary
The Euro and GEM are aggressively forecasting mid-to-upper 80s for western Kentucky, while the NAM and GFS keep highs in the low 80s due to higher projected cloud cover.
Why EURO Wins
Given 850mb temperatures approaching +18C and a high April sun angle, the ECMWF's thermal mixing depth is more physically plausible for this setup.
The Dry Slot Dilemma
The ECMWF maintains a completely dry forecast statewide, whereas the NAM, GFS, and GEM all indicate light measurable precipitation in the Southeast and Western Kentucky. The conflict centers on whether the sub-cloud dry air (dewpoint depressions of 20-30°F) will cause the rain to evaporate as virga.
Why BLEND Wins
While the Euro is the 'Steady Hand' for dry slots, the consistency among the NAM/GEM/GFS regarding the timing of the vorticity pulse suggests at least a 'Nuisance' level of sprinkles will reach the surface.
Celestial Almanac
New Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.