Thursday, April 16
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued April 15 at 10:13AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Low humidity, sunny to mostly sunny skies, near record high temperatures, very dry fuels, and wind gusts up to 20 mph will combine to result in Elevated Fire Danger this afternoon into the evening. Humidities will slowly recover and winds will diminish around or soon after sunset. Any new fires could exhibit erratic fire behavior and rapid growth. Remember, Kentucky regulations make it illegal to burn between the hours of 6 AM EDT and 6 PM EDT within 150 feet of any woodland or brushland during the Spring Forest Fire Season which runs until April 30th.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 2:08PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON HICKMAN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BLOOMFIELD, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, NEW MADRID, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, SIKESTON, VAN BUREN, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 2:50PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS JOHNSON MASSAC POPE SALINE WILLIAMSON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALLOWAY GRAVES LIVINGSTON MARSHALL MCCRACKEN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BENTON, GOLCONDA, HARRISBURG, HERRIN, MAYFIELD, METROPOLIS, MURRAY, PADUCAH, SMITHLAND, AND VIENNA.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 2:50PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON HICKMAN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BLOOMFIELD, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, NEW MADRID, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, SIKESTON, VAN BUREN, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 3:39PM CDT until April 16 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Pulaski County in southern Illinois... Southeastern Alexander County in southern Illinois... Ballard County in western Kentucky... North central Mississippi County in southeastern Missouri... * Until 430 PM CDT. * At 339 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area, or near Cairo, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Cairo, La Center, Mounds, Barlow, Mound City, Kevil, and Olmsted. This includes the following highways... Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and 12. Interstate 57 in Missouri between Mile Markers 20 and 21.
This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 3:43PM CDT until April 16 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Alexander County in southern Illinois... Central Carlisle County in western Kentucky... Southwestern Ballard County in western Kentucky... Northern Mississippi County in southeastern Missouri... Southeastern Scott County in southeastern Missouri... * Until 430 PM CDT. * At 343 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bertrand, or near Miner, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Charleston, Cairo, Miner, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Bertrand, Wyatt, Blodgett, Diehlstadt, Wilson City, and Blandville. This includes the following highways... Interstate 57 in Missouri between Mile Markers 4 and 20. Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 68 and 74.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 3:58PM CDT until April 16 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 358 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Barlow, or near La Center, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Cairo, La Center, Barlow, Mound City, Kevil, and Olmsted. This includes the following highways... Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and 4. Interstate 57 in Missouri between Mile Markers 20 and 21.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 4:04PM CDT until April 16 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Massac County in southern Illinois... South central Pope County in southern Illinois... Southwestern Livingston County in western Kentucky... Northeastern Ballard County in western Kentucky... McCracken County in western Kentucky... * Until 500 PM CDT. * At 404 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over La Center, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Paducah, Metropolis, Lone Oak, Reidland, Brookport, Barkley Regional Airport, West Paducah, Ledbetter, and Kevil. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 1 and 17. Interstate 24 in Illinois between Mile Markers 34 and 38.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 4:49PM CDT until April 16 at 5:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 449 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Calvert City, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Calvert City, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Demumbers Bay Campground, Hillman Ferry Campground, Cravens Bay Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, and Grand Rivers. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 18 and 29. Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 45 and 51.
This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 4:51PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALDWELL CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN HOPKINS LYON TRIGG THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CADIZ, EDDYVILLE, HOPKINSVILLE, MADISONVILLE, MARION, AND PRINCETON.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 4:51PM CDT until April 16 at 5:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Calloway County in western Kentucky... Southern Marshall County in western Kentucky... West central Trigg County in western Kentucky... East central Graves County in western Kentucky... * Until 530 PM CDT. * At 451 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of Benton, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Benton, Land Between The Lakes Area, Hardin, Aurora, Brewers, and Kirksey. This includes Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 31 and 45.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 4:51PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MARSHALL MCCRACKEN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, BLOOMFIELD, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, GOLCONDA, HARRISBURG, HERRIN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MAYFIELD, METROPOLIS, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, MURRAY, NEW MADRID, PADUCAH, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, SIKESTON, SMITHLAND, VAN BUREN, VIENNA, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 5:02PM CDT until April 16 at 5:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 501 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of Mayfield, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Mayfield and Symsonia. This includes Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 24 and 31.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 16 at 5:50PM CDT until April 16 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN HOPKINS LYON MARSHALL TRIGG IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, BLOOMFIELD, CADIZ, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, EDDYVILLE, HICKMAN, HOPKINSVILLE, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MADISONVILLE, MARBLE HILL, MAYFIELD, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, MURRAY, NEW MADRID, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, PRINCETON, SIKESTON, VAN BUREN, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 5:52PM CDT until April 16 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 552 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of Paris Landing State Park, moving east at 60 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Murray, Hazel, New Concord, and Crossland.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 6:02PM CDT until April 16 at 6:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 601 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles north of Hopkinsville to 8 miles northwest of Fort Campbell to near Big Rock, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD 70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Hopkinsville, Oak Grove, Fort Campbell, Pembroke, Lafayette, and Herndon. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 68 and 92. Pennyrile Parkway between Mile Markers 1 and 16.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 6:03PM CDT until April 16 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 603 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Crofton, or 16 miles northeast of Hopkinsville, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD 70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Nortonville, Crofton, White Plains, St. Charles, and Hawkins. This includes Pennyrile Parkway between Mile Markers 16 and 33.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 6:05PM CDT until April 16 at 6:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 605 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles east of Cobb to near Cadiz to 8 miles east of Wranglers Campground, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Cadiz and Linton. This includes Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 62 and 69.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 16 at 6:13PM CDT until April 16 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Muhlenberg County in south central Kentucky... Eastern Christian County in south central Kentucky... Southeastern Hopkins County in northwestern Kentucky... Todd County in south central Kentucky... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 613 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Graham to 8 miles north of Pembroke to Oak Grove, moving east at 50 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Hopkinsville, Oak Grove, Elkton, Fort Campbell, Clarksville, Guthrie, Pembroke, Dunmor, Weir, White Plains, Trenton, Allensville, Allegre, Clifty, Everett, and Justice. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 82 and 92. Pennyrile Parkway between Mile Markers 2 and 12.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, April 16, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Warm Spring Breezes and Scattered Evening Showers
A progressive spring shortwave trough will cross Kentucky today, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures and scattered light rain showers. While moisture is plentiful, dry air near the surface will likely result in more virga and light sprinkles than significant rainfall for many areas, especially in Central Kentucky. Highs will reach the mid-70s to low 80s.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is very high that no wintry weather or severe storms will occur. Confidence is lower regarding the exact rainfall totals, as the conflict between moisture transport and low-level dry air creates a high uncertainty for measurable precipitation amounts.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect light rain showers during the morning commute, moving out by midday to reveal a very warm and breezy afternoon. Highs will reach near 80 degrees. Total rain accumulations will be around two-tenths of an inch.
Northwest Pennyrile
Windy conditions will accompany light rain showers through the first half of the day. Afternoon clearing is expected with very warm temperatures.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a warm day with a few light rain showers passing through during the afternoon. Winds will be noticeable, with gusts over 30 mph.
Barren River
A cloudy and windy day is in store for Bowling Green. While rain is likely this afternoon, amounts will be very light.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see unseasonably warm temperatures near 78 degrees. While a few sprinkles are possible, the day will be mostly dry and windy.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a warm day with gusty winds. Light rain showers will develop in the afternoon, but significant accumulation is not expected.
Lake Cumberland
A beautiful and warm start to the day will transition into a damp evening as light rain showers move through.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a windy day with gusts over 35 mph. Most of the day will be dry and warm, with a few light showers arriving after dark.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a very windy day with gusts up to 38 mph. A few passing showers are likely in the evening, though amounts will be light.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect scattered showers to move through the foothills this evening. Highs will be pleasant in the upper 70s.
Northeast Kentucky
Temperatures will reach near 80 degrees under increasing clouds. Rain showers will arrive late in the afternoon and evening.
Southeast Kentucky
A warm afternoon will give way to steady rain showers this evening. Rainfall totals will be slightly higher in the mountains due to the terrain.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves the GFS/GEM solution winning, where the mid-level trough remains more organized, overcoming the low-level dry slot to produce a steady 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain statewide, providing a beneficial soak for spring gardens.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario follows the NAM logic, where the dry sub-cloud layer is too deep to overcome, resulting in little more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain and keeping conditions breezy and warm but largely dry.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga vs. Value Conflict
The NAM remains steadfast in showing very little measurable rainfall (under 0.05") due to a deep dry layer at the surface. In contrast, the GFS and GEM suggest the column will saturate quickly enough to allow for 0.20" to 0.40" of rain, particularly in the west and southeast.
Why BLEND Wins
While global models often over-forecast light precip, the NAM's extreme dryness seems to ignore the robust moisture transport indicated by high PWat values. A blend accounts for the high probability of rain without committing to the higher-end GFS totals.
The Afternoon Warmth Peak
The ECMWF and GEM are significantly more aggressive with surface heating, suggesting highs in the low-to-mid 80s in Northeast Kentucky, while the NAM and GFS keep highs in the mid-70s due to cloud cover.
Why EURO Wins
The strong southwesterly flow and 850mb thermal stack favor the warmer solution, as cloud cover is likely to remain thin enough for significant solar insolation before rain arrives late.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.