Tuesday, February 17
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 16 at 3:44PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of mostly clear skies, moist soils, and light winds will set the stage for another night of potentially dense fog across the region. The best chances for fog will be late tonight and early Tuesday morning. If traveling late tonight, slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance between yourself and other vehicles. Be prepared for rapid changes in visibility.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 9:06PM EST until February 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN Until 10 AM EST Tuesday.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. Patchy slick spots could develop on elevated roadways where temperatures drop below freezing.
If driving, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 17 at 3:04AM EST until February 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN Until 10 AM EST this morning.
IMPACTS Very low visibilities will present hazardous driving conditions.
Commuters should be aware of rapidly changing visibilities this morning. Maintain a safe distance between vehicles and drive with caution.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 17 at 5:18AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of partly clear skies, moist soils, and light winds has set the stage for some patchy dense fog across the region this morning. Fog is most likely near river valleys and bodies of water. If traveling early this morning, slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance between yourself and other vehicles. Be prepared for rapid changes in visibility. The fog should burn off by mid to late morning.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Unseasonable Warmth and Gusty Winds with Scattered Showers
A strong warm-advection pattern will dominate the Commonwealth on Tuesday, pushing temperatures 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms. While most of the state remains dry under increasing cloud cover, a weak disturbance will bring light rain to the far west and stray sprinkles to central regions. High winds will be the primary concern as a low-level jet brings gusts of 30 to 40 mph by the afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
Model agreement is exceptionally high regarding the unseasonable warmth and high wind gusts. However, significant disagreement remains between the ECMWF and the American/Canadian suites regarding whether light rain will actually reach the surface in central Kentucky.
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Purchase Area
Expect periods of light rain throughout the day, especially in the afternoon. Winds will be strong, with gusts reaching 37 mph.
Northwest Pennyrile
Clouds will thicken today with a slight chance of a light shower. The main story will be the wind, gusting to 34 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very mild afternoon with temperatures in the lower 60s. Wind gusts will be noticeable, peaking around 35 mph.
Barren River
One of the warmest spots in the state with highs near 65 degrees. Hang on to your hat as winds gust over 35 mph.
Louisville Metro
Highs will reach 60 degrees. A few light sprinkles are possible in the afternoon, but significant rain is not expected.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a windy day on the plateau with gusts up to 38 mph. Highs will be very pleasant in the low 60s.
Lake Cumberland
A beautiful and very mild day with highs in the mid-60s. Skies will stay mostly dry and breezy.
Northern Kentucky
Morning frost will give way to a very mild afternoon with temperatures near 60 degrees. Windy by evening.
Inner Bluegrass
Temperatures will reach 62 degrees under cloudy skies. A stray shower is possible this evening, but most will stay dry.
Bluegrass Foothills
A pleasant day with temperatures well above average. It will be breezy at times but rain is not expected.
Northeast Kentucky
After a frosty start, temperatures will soar into the low 60s under afternoon sunshine and high clouds.
Southeast Kentucky
Dry and very mild for the mountains. Highs will reach 61 degrees with breezy conditions on the ridges.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level moisture overcomes the dry slot faster than anticipated (as suggested by the ECMWF), a more widespread 0.10" to 0.25" of rain could soak central Kentucky through the afternoon, and cloud cover could keep temperatures slightly cooler in the upper 50s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air remains entrenched (as seen in the GFS/GEM solutions), the state will remain entirely dry with the exception of the far western border, and deep mixing could push afternoon high temperatures into the upper 60s in the Barren River and Lake Cumberland regions.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Central KY Rain Disparity
The ECMWF forecasts a measurable band of light rain (0.05") moving through the I-65 and I-75 corridors, while the GFS, GEM, and NAM keep this moisture aloft as virga due to significant dry air in the boundary layer.
Why BLEND Wins
While the ECMWF often over-forecasts light QPF in warm-advection regimes, the NAM and GFS are likely too dry given the strength of the isentropic lift. A blend favors high PoP (clouds/sprinkles) but minimal measurable accumulation.
LLJ Momentum Transfer Timing
The GFS delays the strongest wind gusts (35-40mph) until after sunset, whereas the NAM and GEM suggest peak gusts will occur during the afternoon heating cycle.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the timing of boundary layer mixing and low-level jet interactions with greater precision in the 0-36 hour window.
Celestial Almanac
New Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.