Monday, February 16
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 2:25AM EST until February 16 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Visibility near zero at times in dense fog. Some patchy freezing fog through daybreak is possible on bridges and elevated roadways.
WHERE Area-wide.
WHEN Until 11 AM EST this morning.
IMPACTS Significant visibility reductions to near zero at times will necessitate extra caution for commuters through late morning. Temperatures below freezing in many areas will increase the threat for icy patches on elevated roadways.
Maintain safe distance between vehicles and keep an eye on your external temperature sensor. Slow down. Maintain a steady speed on elevated roads with temperatures below freezing - do not accelerate or stop quickly if at all possible.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 2:01AM CST until February 16 at 9:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall below below freezing isolated locations early this morning, which may lead to a few slippery spots developing on bridges.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 2:56AM CST until February 16 at 9:00AM CST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Visibility a quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Adair, Allen, Barren, and Metcalfe Counties.
WHEN Until 9 AM CST this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 2:56AM CST until February 16 at 9:00AM CST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. Patchy slick spots could develop on elevated surfaces and roadways in locations where temps fall just below freezing.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN Until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. Watch for a few slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 4:07AM EST until February 16 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and much of West Virginia.
WHEN Until 10 AM EST this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. In addition, temperatures below freezing in some locations could result in isolated slick surfaces.
If driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. Do not assume the road ahead is unobstructed.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 5:37AM EST until February 16 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until 10 AM EST this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 6:58AM EST until February 16 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Montgomery, and Rowan Counties.
WHEN Until 10 AM EST this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 7:54AM EST until February 16 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. Some patchy freezing fog through daybreak is possible on bridges and elevated roadways.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN Until 11 AM EST this morning.
IMPACTS Significant visibility reductions to near zero at times will necessitate extra caution for commuters through late morning. Temperatures below freezing in some areas will increase the threat for icy patches on elevated roadways.
If driving, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 8:34AM CST until February 16 at 11:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 11 AM CST /noon EST/ this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 10:30AM EST until February 16 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter to one half mile in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN Until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 16 at 10:39AM EST until February 16 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN Until noon EST today.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 16 at 3:44PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of mostly clear skies, moist soils, and light winds will set the stage for another night of potentially dense fog across the region. The best chances for fog will be late tonight and early Tuesday morning. If traveling late tonight, slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance between yourself and other vehicles. Be prepared for rapid changes in visibility.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, February 16, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Wintry Mix Potential Followed by Afternoon Warm-Up
A weak disturbance will bring a brief window of light precipitation to North-Central Kentucky early Monday morning, potentially causing isolated slick spots before a significant afternoon warming trend takes hold across the state.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is lowered by significant model disagreement regarding morning precipitation existence in the Bluegrass and the potential for a wintry mix during the morning commute.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A beautiful day is expected with clear skies and temperatures reaching the low 60s. No precipitation or travel issues are anticipated.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a crisp morning followed by a sunny afternoon. High temperatures will top out around 60 degrees.
Southwest Pennyrile
A sunny and mild day with highs reaching into the lower 60s. Ideal for any outdoor plans.
Barren River
A chilly morning will quickly give way to a warm and sunny afternoon as highs reach the low 60s.
Louisville Metro
Expect a few light rain showers or drizzle through midday. Skies will clear and turn mild by the afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
A very brief wintry mix is possible around sunrise, particularly on bridges. It will turn sunny and warm with highs in the mid-50s.
Lake Cumberland
Light rain showers will move through during the morning hours. The afternoon will be dry and mild with highs near 60.
Northern Kentucky
A gray and chilly start will transition to a sunnier afternoon. Highs will stay in the upper 40s.
Inner Bluegrass
Isolated slick spots are possible on bridges early Monday due to freezing drizzle. Conditions improve rapidly after 10 AM with highs in the 50s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Mostly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to afternoon sun. Temperatures will top out in the mid-50s.
Northeast Kentucky
A dry but cloudy day with temperatures staying in the low 50s. Skies should begin to clear late in the day.
Southeast Kentucky
A few light rain showers are possible before 9 AM. The rest of the day will be dry and mild with highs in the mid-50s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shallow cold air remains trapped longer than forecast and the NAM's moisture verification is higher, light icing could persist through the entire morning commute in the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky, with afternoon highs struggling to reach the 50s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air seen in the GFS and GEM models prevails, no precipitation will reach the ground (virga), and the entire state will transition quickly to a sunny, spring-like afternoon with highs reaching the 60s universally.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Shallow Cold Wedge
The NAM shows a persistent sub-freezing layer at the surface across the Bluegrass and Lincoln Trail regions through 15Z, whereas the GFS and GEM are much more aggressive in scouring out the cold air via southerly return flow.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles shallow cold air damming and boundary-layer thermal profiles with higher precision than global models in the 0-24h window.
The Bluegrass Moisture Gap
A conflict exists regarding whether moisture is deep enough to overcome dry low-levels. The NAM produces trace freezing drizzle, while the GFS suggests a complete dry slot.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM resolves the thermal profile better, it often over-forecasts trace precipitation in moisture-starved environments. A blend ensures the risk is mentioned without over-forecasting accumulation.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.