Saturday, May 16
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 16 at 8:22AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 822 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms near Madison, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Madison, Bedford, Hanover, Smyrna, Milton, Dupont, Brooksburg, Wakefield, Middlefork, and Canaan.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 16 at 8:29AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 829 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of Vevay, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD Penny size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Locations impacted include... Carrollton, Rising Sun, Vevay, Warsaw, Florence, Kentucky Speedway, Pleasant, Hartford, Glencoe, Fairview, Ghent, Sanders, Sparta, Patriot, Prestonville, Brooksburg, Aberdeen, Steele Bottom, Locust, and Moorefield. This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 66. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 16 at 8:41AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 840 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Milan, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD Penny size hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Lightning can cause serious injury or death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible. Locations impacted include... Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Aurora, Bright, Hidden Valley, Burlington, Versailles, Milan, Osgood, Dillsboro, Shawnee, Moores Hill, Guilford, Wilmington, Logan, Manchester, French, Sunman, Hartford, and St. Leon. This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 153 and 168. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. Motorists should slow down and use extra caution. When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning threatens. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 16 at 12:51PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 1251 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles north of New Albany, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD Penny size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Charlestown, Sellersburg, New Pekin, Owen, Goshen, Borden, Speed, Saint Joseph, Henryville, and Starlight.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Wet and Rainy North, Warm and Sunny Southeast
A sharp contrast in weather will define the state today. A stalled moisture boundary near the Ohio River will serve as a focus for multiple rounds of rain across Northern and Central Kentucky, while the Southern and Southeastern regions remain unseasonably warm and mostly dry under higher pressure.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the geographic split of weather; however, the exact rainfall totals in the transition zone (Lincoln Trail to Bluegrass) remain somewhat uncertain due to convective training potential.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A very warm day is in store with plenty of sunshine and highs reaching the mid-80s. Expect windy conditions in the morning with gusts reaching up to 35 mph before tapering off slightly in the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies will prevail for most of the day, with rain showers becoming likely by late afternoon and evening. Total rainfall will likely be around 0.4 inches for areas like Owensboro.
Southwest Pennyrile
Clouds will be frequent today, but most of the rain will stay to the north. Highs will be unseasonably warm, reaching the mid-80s.
Barren River
Expect a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s. A stray shower is possible, but most areas will remain dry throughout the day.
Louisville Metro
Several rounds of rain are expected today, with the heaviest arriving this evening. Accumulations around 1.2 inches could lead to minor flooding on roads and in low-lying areas.
Lincoln Trail
A few rounds of rain will move through, totaling about a quarter of an inch. It will be a breezy day with gusts up to 30 mph at times.
Lake Cumberland
Great weather for outdoor activities with highs in the low 80s. While it will be cloudy, significant rain is not expected during the day.
Northern Kentucky
Keep the umbrella handy as rain will be persistent from morning through evening. Total rainfall will be around 0.4 inches, and temperatures will stay cooler in the 70s.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will become common during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect accumulations around 0.6 inches, leading to a soggy day across the region.
Bluegrass Foothills
Afternoon rain is expected for Richmond and Danville, with around 0.35 inches likely. Temperatures will be comfortable, topping out in the upper 70s.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect periods of light rain today, mostly during the afternoon and early evening. Total rainfall will be light, generally around 0.15 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will avoid the rain today, enjoying a beautiful spring day with highs in the low 80s. Expect plenty of sunshine and light winds through the afternoon.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves the moisture plume shifting slightly further south, resulting in widespread 1.5 to 2.0-inch rainfall totals for the I-64 corridor and extending impactful rain into the Lake Cumberland and Coalfield regions.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario occurs if the dry air in the mid-levels, currently modeled by the GEM, wins out. This would lead to significant virga and only scattered light showers for Louisville and Lexington, with little to no measurable accumulation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Southern Kentucky Dry-Line
Models disagree on how far south the rain shield will penetrate. The Euro attempts to bring light rain to the TN border, while the NAM and GFS keep the southern tier dry.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS handling of the mid-level dry wedge and ridging is more consistent with the current satellite trends showing significant dry air advection from the southwest.
The Louisville QPF Duel
The NAM and GFS are predicting a high-intensity moisture convergence zone over the Louisville Metro, with the NAM projecting over 1.4 inches of rain. The Euro and GEM are significantly drier, suggesting less than half an inch.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's superior resolution of mesoscale convergence and the alignment of the 500mb vorticity maximum with the moisture axis suggests it has a better handle on the localized training potential.
Celestial Almanac
New Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.