kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Apr 24
Sun, Apr 26
Forecast For

Saturday, April 25

Updated Apr 25, 6:59 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Apr 24, 11:21 PM -> Apr 25, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 24 at 11:21PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Dense Fog Advisory

Apr 25, 12:13 AM -> Apr 25, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued April 25 at 12:13AM EDT until April 25 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Dense Fog Advisory

Apr 25, 12:19 AM -> Apr 25, 8:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued April 25 at 12:19AM EDT until April 25 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Paducah KY

Dense Fog Advisory

Apr 25, 3:38 AM -> Apr 25, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued April 25 at 3:38AM EDT until April 25 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Dense Fog Advisory

Apr 25, 3:38 AM -> Apr 25, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued April 25 at 3:38AM EDT until April 25 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
95%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, April 25, 2026.

Temperature
±2.6°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±5.42"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±3.5mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
81° / 58°
Actual
80° / 55°
Error: 1°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 12 mph
Actual
3 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
77° / 57°
Actual
79° / 53°
Error: -2°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 10 mph
Actual
3 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
80° / 59°
Actual
80° / 32°
Error: 0°F high, 27°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 12 mph
Actual
4 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
78° / 60°
Actual
80° / 56°
Error: -2°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.01"
Actual
0.29"
±0.27999999999999997" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 12 mph
Actual
4 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
75° / 58°
Actual
74° / 58°
Error: 1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
12.34"
±12.34" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 15 mph
Actual
5 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
74° / 56°
Actual
77° / 51°
Error: -3°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.01"
Actual
15.75"
±15.74" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 11 mph
Actual
3 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
74° / 60°
Actual
80° / 58°
Error: -6°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.15"
Actual
10"
±9.85" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 15 mph
Actual
3 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
75° / 57°
Actual
75° / 56°
Error: 0°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.02"
Actual
17.61"
±17.59" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 20 mph
Actual
3 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
74° / 58°
Actual
75° / 56°
Error: -1°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.03"
Actual
3.98"
±3.95" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 22 mph
Actual
5 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
73° / 59°
Actual
75° / 60°
Error: -2°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.07"
Actual
0.18"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 12 mph
Actual
3 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
71° / 60°
Actual
76° / 60°
Error: -5°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.15"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 18 mph
Actual
4 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
68° / 57°
Actual
76° / 58°
Error: -8°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
5.2"
±5" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
4 / 10 mph
Actual
2 / 12 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Warm Spring Warmth Follows Quick Morning Showers

A weak surface trough and associated shortwave energy will traverse the state early Saturday, bringing a window of light rain to central and eastern Kentucky. Rapid clearing from west to east is expected by midday, resulting in a very warm and sunny spring afternoon for most of the Commonwealth.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High model agreement on the synoptic timing of the trough passage and the rapid onset of high pressure behind it. Low volatility event with no severe or wintry threats.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Bright and Very Warm
Sunny
81°/ 58°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Pleasant and Sunny
Sunny
77°/ 57°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Warm and Bright
Sunny
80°/ 59°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Early Morning Drizzle, Then Sunny
Rain
78°/ 60°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Cloudy Start, Bright Afternoon
Cloudy
75°/ 58°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Morning Sprinkles Clearing Fast
Rain
74°/ 56°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Damp Morning, Sunny Afternoon
Rain
74°/ 60°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Morning Clouds, Breezy Evening
Cloudy
75°/ 57°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Brief Morning Rain, Clearing Late
Rain
74°/ 58°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Morning Showers, Afternoon Sun
Rain
73°/ 59°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Damp Start, Clearing Evening
Rain
71°/ 60°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Wet Morning in the Mountains
Rain
68°/ 57°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the shortwave slows and the moisture axis stalls against the Appalachians, light rain and low clouds could persist in the Southeast Coalfields through sunset, holding temperatures in the lower 60s.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry air entrainment seen in the NAM/GFS soundings is more aggressive, the rain across the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky may manifest only as virga (evaporating before hitting the ground), resulting in a nearly dry day for everyone north of the Cumberland Parkway.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Afternoon Thermal Peaks

A split exists between the cooler GFS/NAM (mid-70s) and the warmer Euro/GEM (upper 70s to low 80s) regarding afternoon highs following the clearing.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

Strong late-April insolation following a weak boundary typically favors the warmer solutions. However, we have shaved 1-2 degrees off the Euro's peak values to account for residual soil moisture.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

The Northern Moisture Shield

The NAM is significantly drier for the Northern Kentucky and Bluegrass regions, suggesting the dry slot cuts off precipitation entirely. The GFS, Euro, and GEM suggest a broader shield of light stratiform rain reaching the Ohio River.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The Euro and GEM show better consistency with the jet-level forcing and mid-level saturation profiles, whereas the NAM appears to over-evaporate the light precipitation in its boundary layer scheme.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS CORELOUISVILLE METRO

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

Warm spring air mass with 1000-500mb thicknesses rising to 568-572dam by afternoon. Profile is entirely above freezing through the troposphere.

Thermal Boundary

The primary moisture/thermal boundary will push east of I-75 by 15z and clear the state by 21z.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal curve in the west. Non-diurnal or flat morning curve in the east due to rain-cooled air and thick cloud cover before late afternoon warming.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak surface trough/front shifts winds from S to WSW between 09z and 15z, marking the end of the precip threat.

Jet Stream Support

Moderate lift via the right entrance region of a departing jet streak centered over the Great Lakes.

Energy Status

A compact but deamplifying shortwave trough is providing the primary lifting mechanism.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Saturated 925-700mb layer in the morning for central/east; rapid drying (dewpoint depressions >15C) by afternoon.

Precipitation Character

Stratiform light rain and drizzle. Zero CAPE precludes any convective or thunder risk.

Flooding Context

No risk. Maximum totals capped at 0.25 inches over unsaturated soils.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Not applicable; all layers well above 0C.

Crystal Habit

None.

Road Impact

Wet roads during the morning commute for central/eastern Kentucky.

Severe Risk

Instability & Shear

Atmospheric ingredients required for severe thunderstorms, including available fuel (CAPE) and storm organization (shear).

Shear Analysis

Deep layer shear is moderate (40kts) but irrelevant due to a complete lack of instability.

Instability Context

CAPE is 0 J/kg statewide.

Primary Threat

None.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

65% Illumination
Moonrise
2:51 PM
Moonset
4:08 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:08 AM
Sunset
8:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:40 AM
Civil Dusk
9:06 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:01 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:33 AM
Civil Dusk
9:01 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
9:01 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM
Civil Dawn
6:32 AM
Civil Dusk
8:57 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:55 AM
Sunset
8:29 PM
Civil Dawn
6:27 AM
Civil Dusk
8:57 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:28 PM
Civil Dawn
6:28 AM
Civil Dusk
8:56 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:52 AM
Sunset
8:22 PM
Civil Dawn
6:24 AM
Civil Dusk
8:50 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:48 AM
Sunset
8:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:20 AM
Civil Dusk
8:53 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
8:23 PM
Civil Dawn
6:22 AM
Civil Dusk
8:51 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:49 AM
Sunset
8:22 PM
Civil Dawn
6:22 AM
Civil Dusk
8:50 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
8:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:14 AM
Civil Dusk
8:45 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:46 AM
Sunset
8:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:18 AM
Civil Dusk
8:44 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.