Wednesday, March 25
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Spring Surge: Unseasonably Warm and Breezy Conditions
A powerful ridge of high pressure shifting off the Atlantic coast will trigger significant warm air advection across Kentucky. Expect unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s statewide under mostly sunny skies, accompanied by breezy southwesterly winds.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the lack of precipitation and the overall thermal ridge placement. Minor uncertainty remains regarding the exact magnitude of wind gusts and the persistence of morning cloud cover.
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Purchase Area
A beautiful spring day is ahead for the Purchase area. Temperatures will soar into the mid-70s under bright, sunny skies. Expect a light southwesterly breeze throughout the afternoon, making for ideal outdoor conditions.
Northwest Pennyrile
Residents can look forward to a sunny day with temperatures reaching the lower 70s. The wind will pick up slightly during the afternoon hours, with gusts near 29 mph at times.
Southwest Pennyrile
Abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to climb quickly after a cool start. Highs will reach the mid-70s, accompanied by a steady breeze out of the south.
Barren River
Bowling Green and the surrounding areas will experience a very breezy day. While skies remain sunny, wind gusts could reach 34 mph, especially during the afternoon.
Louisville Metro
A sunny and warm day is in store for the Louisville area with highs near 70. It will be breezy, particularly in the evening, so secure any loose outdoor items.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a windy but beautiful spring day across the Lincoln Trail region. Afternoon gusts up to 34 mph are possible, though temperatures will remain comfortable in the upper 60s.
Lake Cumberland
The Lake Cumberland area will enjoy some of the calmest and brightest conditions in the state. Highs near 70 with plenty of sun will make for a great day outdoors.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will see a bright and pleasant day with temperatures in the upper 60s. Winds will be light during the morning but will increase after sunset.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and surrounding counties will see a classic spring day with ample sun and breezy conditions. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 60s, though gusts near 30 mph will be common.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a cool start to the day, but temperatures will rebound quickly into the upper 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with a moderate afternoon breeze.
Northeast Kentucky
Highs will reach the upper 60s under sunny skies for Ashland and Morehead. Winds will be lighter here than in Western Kentucky, making for a very calm day.
Southeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky will enjoy plenty of sun and unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 60s with light winds throughout the day.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the dry column persists and mixing depths reach 750mb, afternoon highs could over-perform by 3-5 degrees, potentially tagging 80 degrees in the Purchase region with wind gusts exceeding 40 mph.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the ECMWF's projection of stubborn low-level moisture verifies, a persistent stratus deck could keep temperatures capped in the mid-60s for Central and Eastern Kentucky, significantly muting the warming trend.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Cloud Cover Contradiction
The ECMWF forecasts a persistent low-level stratus deck (80-90% coverage) across the state, while the GFS, NAM, and GEM suggest a bone-dry column with nearly full insolation.
Why BLEND Wins
Satellite trends and PWAT values below 0.5 inches favor the sunnier solutions of the GFS/NAM, but some high-level cirrus and morning moisture are likely, leading to a 'Mostly Sunny' compromise.
The Wind Gust Discrepancy
The NAM and GFS indicate a vigorous 35+ mph gust potential due to a tight pressure gradient, whereas the ECMWF suggests much lighter, non-impactful winds.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM handles boundary layer mixing and momentum transfer from the low-level jet much more accurately in high-pressure exit scenarios.
Celestial Almanac
First Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.